Net survival is the most common measure of cancer prognosis and has been used to study differentials in cancer survival between ethnic or racial population subgroups. However, net survival ignores competing risks of deaths and so provides incomplete prognostic information for cancer patients, and when comparing survival between populations with different all-cause mortality. Another prognosis measure, "crude probability of death", which takes competing risk of death into account, overcomes this limitation. Similar to net survival, it can be calculated using either life tables (using Cronin-Feuer method) or cause of death data (using Fine-Gray method). The aim of this study is two-fold: (1) to compare the multivariable results produced by different survival analysis methods; and (2) to compare the Cronin-Feuer with the Fine-Gray methods, in estimating the cancer and non-cancer death probability of both Indigenous and non-Indigenous cancer patients and the Indigenous cancer disparities. Cancer survival was investigated for 9,595 people (18.5% Indigenous) diagnosed with cancer in the Northern Territory of Australia between 1991 and 2009. The Cox proportional hazard model along with Poisson and Fine-Gray regression were used in the multivariable analysis. The crude probabilities of cancer and non-cancer methods were estimated in two ways: first, using cause of death data with the Fine-Gray method, and second, using life tables with the Cronin-Feuer method. Multivariable regression using the relative survival, cause-specific survival, and competing risk analysis produced similar results. In the presence of competing risks, the Cronin-Feuer method produced similar results to Fine-Gray in the estimation of cancer death probability (higher Indigenous cancer death probabilities for all cancers) and non-cancer death probabilities (higher Indigenous non-cancer death probabilities for all cancers except lung cancer and head and neck cancers). Cronin-Feuer estimated much lower non-cancer death probabilities than Fine-Gray for non-Indigenous patients with head and neck cancers and lung cancers (both smoking-related cancers). Despite the limitations of the Cronin-Feuer method, it is a reasonable alternative to the Fine-Gray method for assessing the Indigenous survival differential in the presence of competing risks when valid and reliable subgroup-specific life tables are available and cause of death data are unavailable or unreliable.

This case series reports the functional outcomes of a prospective group of patients, thought to be at high risk for future morbidity, admitted to a rural intensive care unit (ICU) for a life-threatening illness. This prospective longitudinal observational study conducted between February and August 2009 in the Alice Springs Hospital ICU included patients considered 'high risk', as evidenced by profound physiological derangement. The participants were prospectively recruited when pre-defined criteria were met. Functional outcomes were measured by performance in the six-minute walk test, and the ability to undertake activities of daily living. Persisting morbidity was crudely measured by hospital re-admission rate. Mortality was measured at 6 months. Eighteen patients consented to take part in the study. Fourteen were Indigenous, and 14 were medical patients. Six-minute walk distance did not improve between ICU discharge and 6 months, and was significantly below that predicted. Almost all patients achieved scores consistent with full independence in basic activities of daily living. Five achieved scores consistent with independence in domestic activities of daily living. Twelve required at least one re-admission, with half the Indigenous subgroup requiring three or more re-admissions. There were four deaths, all Indigenous patients, and three were homeless.< This study demonstrates that follow up in this group at 6 months is both feasible and valuable. There is evidence of persisting morbidity, and increased mortality, particularly among Indigenous patients. Further avenues of research are suggested, including the need for a large multi-centre prospective study.

Rheumatic heart disease (RHD), caused by acute rheumatic fever (ARF), is a major health problem in Australian Aboriginal communities. Progress in controlling RHD requires improvements in the delivery of secondary prophylaxis, which comprises regular, long-term injections of penicillin for people with ARF/RHD. This trial aims to improve uptake of secondary prophylaxis among Aboriginal people with ARF/RHD to reduce progression or worsening of RHD. This is a stepped-wedge, randomised trial in consenting communities in Australia's Northern Territory. Pairs of randomly-chosen clinics from among those consenting enter the study at 3-monthly steps. The intervention to which clinics are randomised comprises a multi-faceted systems-based package, in which clinics are supported to develop and implement strategies to improve penicillin delivery, aligned with elements of the Chronic Care Model. Continuous quality improvement processes will be used, including 3-monthly feedback to clinic staff of adherence rates of their ARF/RHD clients. The primary outcome is the proportion of people with ARF/RHD receiving ≥ 80% of scheduled penicillin injections over a minimum 12-month period. The sample size of 300 ARF/RHD clients across five community clusters will power the study to detect a 20% increase in the proportion of individuals achieving this target, from a worrying low baseline of 20%, to 40 %. Secondary outcomes pertaining to other measures of adherence will be assessed. Within the randomised trial design, a mixed-methods evaluation will be embedded to evaluate the efficiency, effectiveness, impact and relevance, sustainability, process and fidelity, and performance of the intervention. The evaluation will establish any causal link between outcomes and the intervention. The planned study duration is from 2013 to 2016. Continuous quality improvement has a strong track record in Australia's Northern Territory, and its use has resulted in modest benefits in a pilot, non-randomised ARF/RHD study. If successful, this new intervention using the Chronic Care Model as a scaffold and evaluated using a well-developed theory-based framework, will provide a practical and transferable approach to ARF/RHD control. Australian New Zealand Clinical Trials Registry: ACTRN12613000223730. Date registered: 25 February 2013.

The Influenza Complications Alert Network (FluCAN) is a sentinel hospital-based surveillance program that operates at sites in all states and territories in Australia. This report summarises the epidemiology of hospitalisations with laboratory-confirmed influenza during the 2015 influenza season. In this observational study, cases were defined as patients admitted to one of the sentinel hospitals with an acute respiratory illness with influenza confirmed by nucleic acid detection. During the period 1 April to 30 October 2015 (the 2015 influenza season), 2,070 patients were admitted with confirmed influenza to one of 17 FluCAN sentinel hospitals. Of these, 46% were elderly (≥ 65 years), 15% were children (< 16 years), 5% were Indigenous Australians, 2.1% were pregnant and 75% had chronic co-morbidities. A high proportion were due to influenza B (51%). There were a large number of hospital admissions detected with confirmed influenza in this national observational surveillance system in 2015 with case numbers similar to that reported in 2014. The national immunisation program is estimated to avert 46% of admissions from confirmed influenza across all at-risk groups, but more complete vaccination coverage in target groups could further reduce influenza admissions by as much as 14%.

Australia introduced universal 7-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV7) from 2005, replaced by 13-valent PCV (PCV13) in 2011, uniquely among high-income countries giving doses at 2, 4, and 6 months (3 + 0 schedule). Data on impact of a timely 3 + 0 PCV schedule with high coverage are sparse, with none for PCV13. We used national surveillance of invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD) from 2002 for baseline and appropriate later comparison periods to calculate incidence rate ratios (IRRs) by serotype and age using a Poisson model. PCV coverage was assessed from the Australian Childhood Immunisation Register. After 9 years of timely 3-dose PCV coverage of >92%, all-age IPD in Australia almost halved (IRR, 0.53; 95% confidence interval [CI], .50-.57), but differed by PCV era. Reductions in IPD due to vaccine serotypes from PCV7 (IRR, 0.20; CI, .17-.22) were about 2-fold greater than for IPD due to extra serotypes in PCV13 (13v-non7v) in a similar period (IRR, 0.58; CI, .51-.66). Post-PCV13 declines in serotype 19A IPD in persons aged <2 years (IRR, 0.23; CI, .13-.35) and ≥2 years (IRR, 0.35; CI, .28-.44) differed from other 13v-non7v IPD (IRR, 0.73; CI, .35-1.48 for those aged <2 years and IRR, 0.96; CI, .81-1.15 for those ≥2 years). Meningitis due to vaccine serotypes nearly disappeared in children eligible for 3 PCV13 doses. IPD due to non-PCV13 serotypes increased by 30% compared with 76% for non-PCV7 serotypes in equivalent period of vaccine use. Reductions in vaccine-type IPD post-PCV13 were inferior to Australian experience with PCV7 and reports from high-income countries giving a PCV booster dose. Applicability of findings to other settings would depend on age of IPD onset, serotype profile, and timeliness of vaccination.

This prospective observational study over 5 years aimed to quantify long-term morbidity and mortality in a prospectively recruited cohort of Central Australian survivors of critical illness. Eligible participants are survivors of an intensive care unit (ICU) admission for a critical illness at the Alice Springs Hospital (ASH), prospectively recruited during 2009. The ASH ICU is a 10-bed unit located in Central Australia with approximately 600 admissions annually, 95% of which are emergent, and 65% Indigenous. All-cause mortality, secondary healthcare utilisation and functional outcomes were measured by 6-minute walk distance (an indicator of functional status) and the home and community care (HACC) screening tool at 5 years. Sixty eight percent of the cohort had died at 5 years. Median age of death was 53 years with a median time to death of 604 days following ICU admission. There was increased secondary healthcare utilisation measured by emergency department presentations and hospital re-admissions, with a median 5.22 healthcare presentations per year alive. There is evidence of ongoing functional limitation with 6-minute walk distance at 5 years significantly less than that predicted, despite high scores on the HACC screening assessment suggesting virtually full resumption of basic and domestic activities of daily living. A critical illness is not an isolated event, and there is evidence of ongoing high secondary healthcare utilisation, reflecting a high burden of disease. Mortality in this cohort is higher than would be expected from international data, and at a young median age, suggesting significant loss of productive life years. In addition, there is evidence of ongoing morbidity, with higher rates of healthcare utilisation than comparable international studies. This has profound implications for healthcare planners due to the ongoing economic implications, and may suggest a need for increased primary healthcare resources to pre-emptively manage chronic disease and reduce the burden of healthcare utilisation at acute care facilities.

Congestive Heart Failure (CHF) is an ambulatory care sensitive condition, associated with significant morbidity and mortality, rarely with cure. Outpatient based pharmacological management represents the main and most important aspect of care, and is usually lifelong. This narrative styled opinion review looks at the pharmacological agents recommended in the guidelines in context of the Northern Territory (NT) of Australia. We explore the concept of validity, a term used to describe the basis of standardising a particular trial or study and the population to which it is applicable. We aim to highlight the problems of the current guidelines based approach. We also present alternatives that could utilise the core principles from major trials, while incorporating regional considerations, which could benefit clients living in the NT and remote Australia.

Indigenous Australians have higher prevalence of chronic diseases and worse acute care outcomes than other Australians. The extent to which higher chronic disease comorbidity levels are responsible for their worse outcomes is not clear, and the performance of comorbidity indices has not been assessed for this population with very high comorbidity levels. Using hospital separations data, the Charlson and Elixhauser comorbidity indices were used to measure chronic disease prevalence in 2035 indigenous and non-indigenous patients hospitalised after their first acute myocardial infarction (AMI) in the Northern Territory of Australia between 1992 and 2004, and to adjust for comorbidity in multivariate analysis of mortality outcomes (in-hospital and long-term deaths from coronary heart disease and all causes). Index performance was assessed by the difference between C statistic, Akaike information criterion statistic and estimate of excess indigenous mortality in models with and without comorbidity adjustment. Comorbidity index scores were higher for indigenous than non-indigenous patients and increased considerably over time, at least partly because of information bias. Indigenous patients' higher risk of in-hospital all-cause death was almost fully explained by their higher comorbidity levels. Their higher risk of long-term coronary heart disease and all-cause death was partially explained by higher comorbidity levels. Charlson and Elixhauser indices performed satisfactorily and similarly in this population. Comorbidity indices performed well in a population with very high chronic disease prevalence. After adjusting for comorbidity, short-term outcomes were similar for indigenous and non-indigenous AMI patients, but comorbidity at the time of the acute episode only partly explained the worse long-term outcomes for indigenous patients.