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Title: Rheumatic Heart Disease Severity, Progression and Outcomes: A Multi-State Model.
Authors: Cannon, Jeffrey
Roberts, Kathryn
Milne, Catherine
Carapetis, Jonathan R
Citation: Journal of the American Heart Association 2017-03-02; 6(3)
Abstract: Rheumatic heart disease (RHD) remains a disease of international importance, yet little has been published about disease progression in a contemporary patient cohort. Multi-state models provide a well-established method of estimating rates of transition between disease states, and can be used to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of potential interventions. We aimed to create a multi-state model for RHD progression using serial clinical data from a cohort of Australian patients. The Northern Territory RHD register was used to identify all Indigenous residents diagnosed with RHD between the ages of 5 and 24 years in the time period 1999-2012. Disease severity over time, surgeries, and deaths were evaluated for 591 patients. Of 96 (16.2%) patients with severe RHD at diagnosis, 50% had proceeded to valve surgery by 2 years, and 10% were dead within 6 years. Of those diagnosed with moderate RHD, there was a similar chance of disease regression or progression over time. Patients with mild RHD at diagnosis were the most stable, with 64% remaining mild after 10 years; however, 11.4% progressed to severe RHD and half of these required surgery. The prognosis of young Indigenous Australians diagnosed with severe RHD is bleak; interventions must focus on earlier detection and treatment if the observed natural history is to be improved. This multi-state model can be used to predict the effect of different interventions on disease progression and the associated costs.
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Journal title: Journal of the American Heart Association
Publication Date: 2017-03-02
Type: Journal Article
DOI: 10.1161/JAHA.116.003498
Appears in Collections:(a) NT Health Research Collection

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