Koolhof IS

Beeton N

Bettiol S

Charleston M

Firestone SM

Gibney K

Neville P

Jardine A

Markey P

Kurucz N

Warchot A

Krause V

Onn M

Rowe S

Franklin L

Fricker S

Williams C

Carver S

2024-02-15

The mechanisms driving dynamics of many epidemiologically important mosquito-borne pathogens are complex, involving combinations of vector and host factors (e.g., species composition and life-history traits), and factors associated with transmission and reporting. Understanding which intrinsic mechanisms contribute most to observed disease dynamics is important, yet often poorly understood. Ross River virus (RRV) is Australia's most important mosquito-borne disease, with variable transmission dynamics across geographic regions. We used deterministic ordinary differential equation models to test mechanisms driving RRV dynamics across major epidemic centers in Brisbane, Darwin, Mandurah, Mildura, Gippsland, Renmark, Murray Bridge, and Coorong. We considered models with up to two vector species (Aedes vigilax, Culex annulirostris, Aedes camptorhynchus, Culex globocoxitus), two reservoir hosts (macropods, possums), seasonal transmission effects, and transmission parameters. We fit models against long-term RRV surveillance data (1991-2017) and used Akaike Information Criterion to select important mechanisms. The combination of two vector species, two reservoir hosts, and seasonal transmission effects explained RRV dynamics best across sites. Estimated vector-human transmission rate (average β = 8.04x10-4per vector per day) was similar despite different dynamics. Models estimate 43% underreporting of RRV infections. Findings enhance understanding of RRV transmission mechanisms, provide disease parameter estimates which can be used to guide future research into public health improvements and offer a basis to evaluate mitigation practices.

College of Health and Medicine, Tasmanian School of Medicine, University of Tasmania, Hobart, Tasmania, Australia.

College of Sciences and Engineering, School of Natural Sciences, University of Tasmania, Hobart, Tasmania, Australia.

Data61, CSIRO, Hobart, Tasmania, Australia.

Melbourne Veterinary School, Faculty of Science, University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia.

Victorian Department of Health and Human Services, Communicable Disease Epidemiology and Surveillance, Health Protection Branch, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia.

Department of Health, Western Australia, Environmental Health Directorate, Public and Aboriginal Health Division, Perth, Western Australia, Australia.

Centre for Disease Control, Northern Territory Department of Health, Northern Territory, Darwin, Australia.

Brisbane City Council, Brisbane, Queensland, Australia.

Australian Centre for Precision Health, University of South Australia, Adelaide, South Australia, Australia.

Odum School of Ecology, University of Georgia, Georgia, United States of America.

Center for the Ecology of Infectious Diseases, University of Georgia, Georgia, United States of America.

Copyright: © 2024 Koolhof et al. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.

PLoS Pathog. 2024 Feb 15;20(2):e1011944. doi: 10.1371/journal.ppat.1011944. eCollection 2024 Feb.

0000-0002-9923-7416

https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/38358961/?otool=iaurydwlib

https://hdl.handle.net/10137/12670

20

Animals

Humans

Ross River virus

*Alphavirus Infections/epidemiology

Mosquito Vectors

Australia/epidemiology

*Aedes

*Culex

Testing the intrinsic mechanisms driving the dynamics of Ross River Virus across Australia.

Journal Article

Publication