Title
Emergency Department Presentations During Dry and Humid Heatwaves: A Case-Crossover Study in the Northern Territory, Australia
Link to article in PubMed
Author(s)
Borchers-Arriagada, Nicolas
Fox-Hughes, Paul
Johnston, Fay H
Campbell, Sharon L
Abstract
In a rapidly warming climate, heatwaves pose an increasing threat to human health. However, there is limited knowledge of heatwave impacts on health outcomes, or the role of humidity in the tropical and arid climates of Australia's Northern Territory (NT). Using a space-time-stratified case-crossover design and conditional Poisson regression models, we analysed the association between heatwaves and emergency department (ED) presentations from 2001 to 2023, across all six NT public hospitals. Heatwaves were identified using the Excess Heat Factor (EHF) method, with both temperature-only (heatwaves_T) and temperature-plus-humidity, heat-index (heatwaves_TH) metrics. We undertook sub-group analyses by sociodemographic characteristics and principal diagnosis. All-cause ED presentations increased by 4.4% (RR = 1.044, 95%CI 1.018-1.071) for severe/extreme and 1.6% (RR = 1.016, 95%CI 1.002-1.030) for low-intensity heatwaves_T. For heatwaves_TH, presentations increased by 6.1% (RR = 1.061, 95%CI 1.025-1.098, severe/extreme) and 0.9% (RR = 1.009, 95%CI 0.995-1.024, low-intensity). Subpopulation increases for severe/extreme heatwaves_T occurred for ages 19-49 years (RR = 1.052; 95%CI 1.018-1.087), visitors (RR = 1.162, 95%CI 1.038-1.301) and skin conditions (RR = 1.116, 95%CI 1.048-1.189). Specific to severe/extreme heatwaves_TH, presentations increased for Aboriginal peoples (RR = 1.059, 95%CI 1.006-1.114), ages 50-64 years (RR = 1.141, 95%CI 1.059-1.230) and cardiovascular conditions (RR = 1.111, 95%CI 1.015-1.216). Comparing heatwave indexes, 57.1% of heatwave_T days were not captured by heatwave_TH, and conversely 49.6% of heatwaves_TH days were not captured by heatwave_T. These findings call for dual heatwave warning systems in the NT, incorporating both EHF temperature and heat-index, and further humidity-inclusive studies in varied climates. Preventative interventions should target high-risk populations, prioritizing resources for severe and extreme heatwaves.
Our research investigates how dry‐heat and humid heatwaves impact emergency department presentations in the Northern Territory, Australia. We find that both dry‐heat and humid heatwaves cause emergency department presentations to rise, particularly for visitors during dry‐heat heatwaves and for Aboriginal people during humid heatwaves. This means that heatwave warning systems must also include measures for humidity, and target high‐risk groups.
Our research investigates how dry‐heat and humid heatwaves impact emergency department presentations in the Northern Territory, Australia. We find that both dry‐heat and humid heatwaves cause emergency department presentations to rise, particularly for visitors during dry‐heat heatwaves and for Aboriginal people during humid heatwaves. This means that heatwave warning systems must also include measures for humidity, and target high‐risk groups.
Publication information
Geohealth. 2026 May 29;10(6):e2025GH001562. doi: 10.1029/2025GH001562. PMID: 42255320; PMCID: PMC13238576.
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GH2-10-e2025GH001562.pdf
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© 2026 The Author(s). GeoHealth published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of American Geophysical Union.
This is an open access article under the terms of the http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ License, which permits use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
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1008.53 KB
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Checksum
(MD5):274132504a3740f626ddb7f62b5f9a67
Date Issued
2026-06
Type
Journal Article
Journal Title
GeoHealth
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